Live market ticker. Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders: 0 percent; Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings: 90 percent; Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31: 16 percent; MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1: 0 percent; Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026: 42 percent
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders0%-60.4ppPOLYMARKET·Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings90%+47.0ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 3116%-78.5ppPOLYMARKET·MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 10%-27.9ppPOLYMARKET·Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 202642%+16.9ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 20261%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by May 313%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup1%POLYMARKET·the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals3%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 3110%POLYMARKET·US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202618%+2.0ppPOLYMARKET·China invade Taiwan by end of 20267%POLYMARKET·Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair0%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by June 306%POLYMARKET·the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 399%+26.1ppPOLYMARKET·the U.S. invade Iran before 202730%POLYMARKET·the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting0%POLYMARKET·Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 318%POLYMARKET·Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League39%POLYMARKET·Finland win Eurovision 202634%POLYMARKET·Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election1%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 202629%-5.0ppPOLYMARKET·WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May69%-6.0ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin Up or Down on May 390%+41.5ppPOLYMARKET·Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June17%+3.0ppPOLYMARKET·Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 202613%-9.5ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 156%+1.0ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May20%+2.0ppPOLYMARKET·Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders0%-60.4ppPOLYMARKET·Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings90%+47.0ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 3116%-78.5ppPOLYMARKET·MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 10%-27.9ppPOLYMARKET·Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 202642%+16.9ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 20261%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by May 313%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup1%POLYMARKET·the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals3%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 3110%POLYMARKET·US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202618%+2.0ppPOLYMARKET·China invade Taiwan by end of 20267%POLYMARKET·Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair0%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by June 306%POLYMARKET·the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 399%+26.1ppPOLYMARKET·the U.S. invade Iran before 202730%POLYMARKET·the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting0%POLYMARKET·Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 318%POLYMARKET·Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League39%POLYMARKET·Finland win Eurovision 202634%POLYMARKET·Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election1%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 202629%-5.0ppPOLYMARKET·WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May69%-6.0ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin Up or Down on May 390%+41.5ppPOLYMARKET·Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June17%+3.0ppPOLYMARKET·Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 202613%-9.5ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 156%+1.0ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May20%+2.0ppPOLYMARKET·
This article left the live edition on April 24, 2026 at 11:06 AM. Prediction market lines move quickly, so treat it as archive context rather than current coverage.
Technology / 1 MIN READ
Bitcoin Above $74K Probability Surges to 88%
Prediction markets signal near-certainty that cryptocurrency will hold key threshold through April 17 close.
88% YESat publishPOLYMARKETBy Prediction DeskFriday, April 17, 2026
Current Market Data
88% YES
current probability
88% YES
Bitcoin Above $74K Probability Surges to 88%
SourcePOLYMARKET
At publish88% YES
Bitcoin's probability of closing above $74,000 on April 17 has surged to 88%, up 28 percentage points in 24 hours, as traders bet the cryptocurrency's recent rally will hold through today's market close. The sharp move in prediction markets reflects growing confidence that Bitcoin's push toward $75,000 has created sufficient momentum to sustain above the key threshold.
The probability spike coincided with $271,000 in trading volume over the past day, nearly matching the market's total $308,000 in lifetime activity. Bitcoin Magazine reported the cryptocurrency skyrocketed 6% near $75,000 as short liquidations accelerated, while CoinDesk noted Bitcoin retook $73,000 as broader market conditions improved with advancing stocks and retreating oil prices.
The market's dramatic repricing suggests traders view Bitcoin's recent price action as fundamentally different from earlier volatility. CoinDesk reporting indicated Bitcoin stalled at $75,000 even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs, positioning the cryptocurrency 40% below its October peak but well above the $74,000 threshold that seemed uncertain just days ago.
The April 17 deadline creates an immediate resolution point for what has become a high-conviction bet among crypto traders. With probability now approaching 90%, the market is pricing Bitcoin's current levels as likely sustainable through today's close, marking a significant shift from the uncertainty that dominated earlier trading sessions.
