World / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this week Hormuz traffic remains far below baseline as reports of oil movement emerge A recent transit count was a fraction of the stated pre-crisis level, while unconfirmed reports of renewed shipments do not yet show that routine shipping has returned.
87% NO Live odds at publish 86% NO KALSHI Synced recently By Prediction Desk Oct 4
Ceasefire uncertainty grows as Trump rejects Iran’s proposal Trump says he remains open to negotiations, while an official describes mediated contacts as ongoing; market prices show less confidence in the truce over longer horizons.
90% YES At publish POLYMARKET By Prediction Desk Sep 27
Trump Rejection of Iran Truce Proposal Darkens Near-Term Diplomacy The reported refusal leaves the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear talks and the risk of renewed strikes tied to a fragile diplomatic channel.
86% NO At publish POLYMARKET By Prediction Desk Sep 26
Trump and Xi Extend Their Trade Truce but Leave Core Disputes Unsettled A cordial White House summit pushed tariff deadlines into January, while technology, farm purchases and Taiwan remain subjects for further negotiation.
99.0% YES At publish POLYMARKET By Prediction Desk Sep 25
Saudi Arabia Restarts East-West Oil Pipeline as Yanbu Exports Near Return Low-rate pumping revives a critical route around the Strait of Hormuz, though a full recovery of crude flows could still take weeks.
69% YES At publish POLYMARKET By Prediction Desk Sep 22
Iran Diplomacy Returns to the United Nations Under the Shadow of War Trump meets Gulf leaders as Iranian officials arrive in New York, reopening a diplomatic channel without ending threats of further U.S. strikes.
72% NO At publish KALSHI By Prediction Desk Sep 22
Houthis Keep Saudi Ships in Their Sights as Red Sea Passage Remains Open A rebel official says the targeted embargo will continue but other vessels may pass, sharpening the distinction between a blockade and a full closure.
98% NO At publish POLYMARKET By Prediction Desk Sep 20
Houthi Missile Attack on Riyadh Deepens Saudi Arabia's Security Crisis Saudi defenses intercepted a missile aimed at the capital as regional allies weighed assistance and American embassies warned of rapid escalation.
80% NO At publish POLYMARKET By Prediction Desk Sep 20
North Korea Fires Another Ballistic Missile as Regional Tensions Rise Seoul and Tokyo tracked a launch from the Wonsan area after Pyongyang renewed its objections to allied military exercises and nuclear scrutiny.
53% NO At publish POLYMARKET By Prediction Desk Sep 20
Greenland Security Agreement Nears Signing as Denmark Defends Sovereignty The three governments plan to sign an Arctic defense pact next week, but its exact military terms and parliamentary path remain unsettled.
96% YES At publish POLYMARKET By Prediction Desk Sep 19
Bangsamoro’s First Elected Parliament Opens a New Test for Regional Peace The Federalist Party won the largest bloc, but a closely divided chamber must still build a coalition and choose the autonomous region’s leadership.
100% YES At publish POLYMARKET By Prediction Desk Sep 16