World

Markets price a 93.5% chance that Hamas agrees to disarm by year-end after Trump announced a deal, but formal confirmation remains elusive.

President Trump confirmed the halt at Iran's request and warned of stronger action if negotiations collapse.

Prediction markets surged 31 points in the last day as analysts weigh conflicting reports about control of the strategic southeastern town.

The US disabled a second vessel running the Strait of Hormuz blockade, while oil briefly crossed $100 and negotiations remain ongoing.

The conflict between the United States and Iran shows no sign of abating, while a separate ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect.

The ninth consecutive night of American strikes targeted provinces including Bushehr, while Iran retaliated against US forces in Jordan, Syria and Kuwait.

Prediction markets price rising odds of China-Philippines military confrontation before year-end amid escalating naval standoffs and grey-zone incidents.

Washington and Tehran are in direct combat after a Jordan base attack killed two US troops, obliterating the June Islamabad pact.

Traders maintain near-certainty on Russian control ahead of July 31 deadline, five months after ISW concluded the town fell.

Prediction markets now assign minimal probability to Iran imposing transit charges before July 31 after waiver announcement.