Politics

Texas, Alaska, Ohio and Iowa are rated toss-ups, but a market tracking combinations of wins is not a forecast of Senate control.

A recent poll puts El-Sayed ahead within the margin of error, while Kalshi traders favor him over Rogers and the race remains difficult to predict.

A Kalshi combination market favors a Democratic sweep, but the available Senate poll addresses only one contest and does not settle the pairing.

A poll found a statistical dead heat, with Rick Jackson slightly ahead, while Kalshi traders currently put Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead.

Traders are nearly split between two pairings with Rob Sand winning the governor’s race, while reporting calls the Senate contest a toss-up.

Kalshi traders favor the Republican, but a recent poll put Byron Donalds and David Jolly within its margin of error as they offer different approaches to affordability.

Kalshi traders put the listed five-state sweep below even, but the combination is not a forecast of the chamber—and the sourced race picture is incomplete.

Polls disagree on the size of James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton, while Kalshi traders lean toward a Democratic win in the listed matchup.

Traders currently give Democrat Sean McCann a narrow edge over Republican incumbent Bill Huizenga, while ratings are split and independent polling is scarce.

Kalshi traders put low probabilities on sector-specific actions, but trading is sparse; a lawsuit over Canadian tariffs tests a separate question of authority.

A new high in a Democratic generic-ballot lead has coincided with traders assigning meaningful weight to a steep Republican loss, though polling error remains possible.