Economy

Oil has swung between $69 and $77 in July, making the 44.5% chance of a $75 print a finely balanced bet.

WTI crude futures remain near $72 a barrel, leaving a $23 gap to the $95 threshold with only days left in July.

Traders now see a one-in-five chance of a quarter-point increase at the July 29 FOMC decision, down sharply from recent highs.

Polymarket traders sharply repriced monetary policy odds overnight, diverging from Wall Street consensus that rates will hold through year-end.

Prediction markets now assign 73 percent odds that WTI crude will touch $90 before month-end despite trading near $79.

Polymarket assigns just 8 percent odds to a July rate increase, while CME futures price the same scenario near 27 percent.

Major banks diverge sharply on whether the Federal Reserve will tighten or ease policy by mid-2027, with markets pricing 10.5 percent odds.

Prediction markets now price a 53 percent chance Elon Musk will post 160 to 179 tweets this week on X.

Polymarket traders now assign just 1.7 percent odds to the Tesla chief posting 100 to 119 times this week.

The AI leader reached an $852 billion valuation in March, while a confidential IPO filing signals a potential public benchmark before year-end.