Politics · 4 MIN READ
New Tariff Executive Order Sends Prediction Markets Surging to 81%
Kalshi traders are now pricing an 81% probability of a comprehensive tariff regime within 90 days.
81% YESKALSHIBy Staff ReporterMar 10
Economy
Fed Rate Cut Before June Climbs to 73% as Markets Price In Pivot
Prediction markets are pricing a Federal Reserve rate cut with increasing conviction as inflation data surprises to the downside.
73% YESPOLYMARKETBy Markets DeskMarch 10, 2026
Live Markets
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before June 2026?
73% YESPOLYMARKET
Vol: $4.2MCloses: Jun 1
New comprehensive tariff executive order within 90 days?
81% YESKALSHI
Vol: $2.8MCloses: May 15
Bitcoin above $100,000 by end of Q1 2026?
67% YESKALSHI
Vol: $6.1MCloses: Mar 31
Today's Markets
Technology · 4 MIN READ
Senate AI Regulation Vote Odds Slip to 34% Amid Lobbying Push
The probability of a Senate AI governance bill passing by year-end has dropped sharply over the past two weeks.
66% NOPOLYMARKETBy Editorial BoardMar 10
World · 4 MIN READ
Ceasefire Negotiations Probability Holds Steady at 52% in Volatile Week
Despite conflicting diplomatic signals, prediction markets see near-even odds on a formal Ukraine ceasefire agreement.
52% YESPOLYMARKETBy Staff ReporterMar 10
Markets · 4 MIN READ
S&P 500 Hits 10,000 Before Year-End: Markets Say 29%
While bull-case scenarios have captured investor imagination, prediction markets remain skeptical of a milestone-breaking rally.
71% NOKALSHIBy Markets DeskMar 10
Analyst Picks
PP
Polly Predicts
Prediction Markets Analyst
Economy
Will the Fed cut rates before June 2026?
Volume-weighted momentum and CME futures divergence make this a high-conviction YES at current pricing.
YESEntry: 58%Now: 73% YES+15.0pp
KK
Kali Kalshi
Macro & Economics Analyst
World
Ukraine ceasefire agreement by end of 2025?
The narrative of intractability is stale. Back-channel signals and sanctions fatigue suggest the market is underpricing resolution.
YESEntry: 39%Now: 52% YES+13.0pp
Politics
Politics · 4 MIN READ
New Tariff Executive Order Sends Prediction Markets Surging to 81%
Kalshi traders are now pricing an 81% probability of a comprehensive tariff regime within 90 days.
81% YESKALSHIBy Staff ReporterMar 10
Politics · 4 MIN READ
House Healthcare Bill Passage Odds Tick Down to 38%
Progressive holdouts are putting pressure on Democratic leadership, and prediction markets are taking note.
62% NOKALSHIBy Staff ReporterMar 10
Economy
Economy · 4 MIN READ
Fed Rate Cut Before June Climbs to 73% as Markets Price In Pivot
Prediction markets are pricing a Federal Reserve rate cut with increasing conviction as inflation data surprises to the downside.
73% YESPOLYMARKETBy Markets DeskMar 10
Economy · 4 MIN READ
U.S. Recession in 2025 Sits at 41% as Labor Market Data Weakens
Prediction markets are nudging recession odds higher after a softer-than-expected jobs report.
59% NOPOLYMARKETBy Editorial BoardMar 10
World
World · 4 MIN READ
Ceasefire Negotiations Probability Holds Steady at 52% in Volatile Week
Despite conflicting diplomatic signals, prediction markets see near-even odds on a formal Ukraine ceasefire agreement.
52% YESPOLYMARKETBy Staff ReporterMar 10
World · 4 MIN READ
UK Snap Election Probability Soars to 68% After Budget Crisis
Polymarket traders are increasingly betting on an early British election as the coalition government faces a confidence vote.
68% YESPOLYMARKETBy Staff ReporterMar 10