Iran Peace Deal Odds Fall After Trump Rejects Tehran’s Counterproposal

Prediction-market traders now put the chance of a permanent U.S.-Iran peace deal by June 30 at 26.5%, a six-percentage-point decline over 24 hours, after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s latest counterproposal as “totally unacceptable.”

The rejection came Sunday when Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s response was “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” without providing details. The following day, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Tehran’s offer was “reasonable and generous” and accused Washington of making “unreasonable” and “excessive demands.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared on X that Iran would “never bow our heads before the enemy.”

The core sticking points remain unresolved. The U.S. and Israel are demanding that Iran ship its stockpile of highly enriched uranium out of the country. Tehran has proposed diluting some of that material and transferring the rest to a third country under a provision allowing its return if the U.S. exits any future deal, according to the Wall Street Journal. Iran also insists on an end to the U.S. naval blockade of its ports, war reparations, and the release of frozen assets as conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on CBS’s “60 Minutes” that the war was “not over” because Iran had not surrendered its enriched uranium or dismantled enrichment sites. Trump himself acknowledged on PBS News that while he is optimistic about a deal, the U.S. “has been down this road before.” He also posted a new threat on Truth Social, warning that if Tehran does not agree, “the bombing starts” at a “higher level and intensity than it was before.”

The Polymarket contract, which has attracted nearly $9.6 million in total volume, now implies roughly a one-in-four chance of a permanent peace agreement by the end of June. Traders will watch for Iran’s formal reply to the latest U.S. proposal—expected from mediators on Thursday—and for any shift in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian leaders in the coming days.