Paxton Holds 93 Percent Edge in Texas GOP Senate Runoff

Prediction markets assign Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton a 93.5 percent probability of defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, reflecting trader confidence in Paxton's late momentum and presidential backing. The runoff follows a March 3 primary in which Cornyn led Paxton 42.5 percent to 40.8 percent, forcing a head-to-head contest after neither candidate surpassed the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a second round.

A mid-April poll conducted for Texas Public Opinion Research showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 8 percentage points among likely Republican runoff voters, and subsequent surveys have reinforced that advantage. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton after weeks of speculation, delivering a late boost that appears to have consolidated support among the party's base. As of April 30, CNN had reported that multiple sources close to the race no longer expected Trump to intervene, making the subsequent endorsement a significant shift in the final stretch of the campaign.

Cornyn has emphasized his legislative record and institutional experience, but faces headwinds in a primary electorate favoring more assertive conservative positions. A February poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and released to Politico showed Cornyn outperforming Paxton in hypothetical general-election matchups against Democrat James Talarico, leading by 3 points while Paxton trailed by the same margin. That data has fueled concern among some Republican strategists about Paxton's November viability, though primary voters appear to prioritize alignment with Trump's agenda over general-election electability arguments.

The winner of the May 26 runoff will face Talarico, who defeated Representative Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary, in the November general election. Early voting is already underway across Texas, and turnout patterns in the final week will determine whether Paxton's polling lead and presidential endorsement translate into the commanding victory that prediction markets currently anticipate.