Prediction Market Bets 60% Bitcoin Will Hit $75,000 in May as Price Slide Accelerates

Polymarket traders are pricing a 60.5% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $75,000 in May, up 14 percentage points in 24 hours. The contract has drawn $1 million in total volume since launch.

The move comes as Bitcoin slumped below $68,000 this week, extending a prolonged decline. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $72,850 on Feb. 10, 2026, and has since lost more ground. The slide has been accompanied by roughly $1 billion in weekly spot ETF outflows, as institutional investors reduce exposure.

Several structural factors are amplifying the selloff. Options-derived negative gamma near the $68,000 level forces dealers to sell into weakness, according to analysis by Glassnode. Liquidity beneath $70,000 is thin, meaning there are few resting orders to catch a sharp drop. Additionally, the average spot ETF buyer, who entered near $90,000, is now facing an unrealized loss of about 22%, sapping the bid from the market.

Prediction market positioning has shifted noticeably. Polymarket contracts tied to Bitcoin's 2026 outcomes now show increased weight on strikes at or below $65,000, while odds at six-figure levels have fallen. This real-time shift in crowd sentiment often precedes sell-side analyst downgrades.

The market remains open until June 1. Traders are watching for a potential test of the 200-week moving average near $57,926, a level that has historically acted as a floor in prior bear cycles.