WTI Crude Rally Stalls Below Hot $110 Threshold as Hormuz Risks Persist

WTI crude oil futures pushed above $105.47 per barrel on May 20, 2026, extending a rally driven by supply fears tied to the Strait of Hormuz, but the contract has yet to test the $110 mark that some analysts had flagged as a possible target.

On May 1, WTI traded near $106, with geopolitical analysts warning that a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices into triple-digit territory. The strait remains a central risk factor, though the precise status of shipping lanes through the waterway has been subject to conflicting reports.

Technical analysts at FXDailyReport noted this week that a bullish breakout above $105.47 opens the door for further gains, though they cautioned that a pullback could precede any rally toward higher targets. A day earlier, the same outlet described price action pressing against a $104 resistance boundary, with a measured move suggesting a potential leg toward $108-$110.

No official source has confirmed WTI reaching $110 in May. All publicly available pricing data shows the contract trading between $104 and $107 during the month. The Pyth oracle, which serves as the designated resolution source for prediction-market settlements, has not published intraday candle data that would confirm or deny a $110 print.

The remaining trading days in May will determine whether the supply-disruption narrative drives prices high enough. Market participants are watching for any official statement from the U.S. Energy Information Administration or the International Energy Agency on the status of Hormuz transit volumes.