Live market ticker. Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders: 0 percent; Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings: 88 percent; Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31: 7 percent; MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1: 0 percent; Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026: 42 percent
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders0%-60.4ppPOLYMARKET·Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings88%+45.0ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 317%-87.7ppPOLYMARKET·MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 10%-27.9ppPOLYMARKET·Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 202642%+17.1ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 20261%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by May 313%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup1%POLYMARKET·the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals3%+0.1ppPOLYMARKET·US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 3110%POLYMARKET·US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202619%+2.0ppPOLYMARKET·China invade Taiwan by end of 20267%POLYMARKET·Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair0%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by June 306%POLYMARKET·the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 399%+24.6ppPOLYMARKET·the U.S. invade Iran before 202730%POLYMARKET·the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting0%POLYMARKET·Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 318%POLYMARKET·Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League39%POLYMARKET·Finland win Eurovision 202634%+0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election1%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 202629%-4.0ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin Up or Down on May 393%+44.5ppPOLYMARKET·Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June17%+3.0ppPOLYMARKET·Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May66%-8.5ppPOLYMARKET·UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 202613%-6.5ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 156%+1.0ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May21%+2.0ppPOLYMARKET·Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders0%-60.4ppPOLYMARKET·Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings88%+45.0ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 317%-87.7ppPOLYMARKET·MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 10%-27.9ppPOLYMARKET·Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 202642%+17.1ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 20261%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by May 313%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup1%POLYMARKET·the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals3%+0.1ppPOLYMARKET·US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 3110%POLYMARKET·US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202619%+2.0ppPOLYMARKET·China invade Taiwan by end of 20267%POLYMARKET·Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair0%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by June 306%POLYMARKET·the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 399%+24.6ppPOLYMARKET·the U.S. invade Iran before 202730%POLYMARKET·the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting0%POLYMARKET·Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 318%POLYMARKET·Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League39%POLYMARKET·Finland win Eurovision 202634%+0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election1%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 202629%-4.0ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin Up or Down on May 393%+44.5ppPOLYMARKET·Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June17%+3.0ppPOLYMARKET·Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May66%-8.5ppPOLYMARKET·UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 202613%-6.5ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 156%+1.0ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May21%+2.0ppPOLYMARKET·
Polymarket traders are pricing a dramatic shift away from military escalation with Iran, driving invasion odds down 6 percentage points to 25% in 24 hours on $866,000 in volume. The market asking whether the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 has attracted $11.9 million in total volume as traders recalibrate conflict probabilities.
The sharp decline mirrors broader de-escalation betting across Iran-related markets, with peace deal prospects surging as diplomatic channels appear to gain momentum. The 24-hour volume spike suggests active repositioning as traders price in reduced military intervention risk through the end of 2026.
Recent reporting indicates diplomatic doors remain open despite ongoing tensions. The Wall Street Journal notes that pathways for diplomacy with Iran persist, while CNBC reports that Wall Street is buying into assurances that the Iran conflict will end soon. The Institute for the Study of War's April 15 special report provides additional context on current regional dynamics shaping market sentiment.
The invasion market now trades at its lowest probability in recent weeks, but traders should monitor whether diplomatic progress translates into concrete agreements. Any breakdown in negotiations or escalation in regional proxy conflicts could quickly reverse the current de-escalation premium. Oil markets and related commodity plays will likely provide early signals of shifting conflict probabilities.
