Live market ticker. Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders: 0 percent; Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31: 18 percent; MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1: 0 percent; Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026: 41 percent; Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026: 1 percent
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders0%-60.4ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 3118%-76.9ppPOLYMARKET·MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 10%-22.4ppPOLYMARKET·Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 202641%+16.3ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 20261%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by May 313%POLYMARKET·Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup1%POLYMARKET·the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals3%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 3110%POLYMARKET·US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202618%POLYMARKET·Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair0%POLYMARKET·China invade Taiwan by end of 20267%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by June 306%-1.0ppPOLYMARKET·the U.S. invade Iran before 202730%POLYMARKET·Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 318%POLYMARKET·the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting0%POLYMARKET·UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 202613%-10.0ppPOLYMARKET·Portugal win Eurovision 20260%POLYMARKET·Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election2%-0.2ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 397%+28.0ppPOLYMARKET·Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 202629%-4.0ppPOLYMARKET·WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May69%-6.0ppPOLYMARKET·Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June17%+3.0ppPOLYMARKET·Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·Bitcoin Up or Down on May 377%+28.0ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 155%POLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May19%POLYMARKET·US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 20262%-1.0ppPOLYMARKET·Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election1%+0.4ppPOLYMARKET·Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders0%-60.4ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 3118%-76.9ppPOLYMARKET·MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 10%-22.4ppPOLYMARKET·Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 202641%+16.3ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 20261%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by May 313%POLYMARKET·Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup1%POLYMARKET·the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals3%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 3110%POLYMARKET·US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202618%POLYMARKET·Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair0%POLYMARKET·China invade Taiwan by end of 20267%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by June 306%-1.0ppPOLYMARKET·the U.S. invade Iran before 202730%POLYMARKET·Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 318%POLYMARKET·the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting0%POLYMARKET·UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 202613%-10.0ppPOLYMARKET·Portugal win Eurovision 20260%POLYMARKET·Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election2%-0.2ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 397%+28.0ppPOLYMARKET·Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 202629%-4.0ppPOLYMARKET·WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May69%-6.0ppPOLYMARKET·Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June17%+3.0ppPOLYMARKET·Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·Bitcoin Up or Down on May 377%+28.0ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 155%POLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May19%POLYMARKET·US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 20262%-1.0ppPOLYMARKET·Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election1%+0.4ppPOLYMARKET·
Prediction markets are pricing a US-Iran permanent peace deal as more likely than not, with the May 31, 2026 contract surging 19 percentage points to 55% probability in 24 hours. The move represents a decisive shift past the 50% threshold, suggesting traders now see diplomatic breakthrough as the base case scenario rather than an outside possibility.
The rally generated $252,000 in 24-hour volume against $671,000 total volume since the market opened, indicating sustained institutional interest rather than retail speculation. The coordinated movement across multiple timeframes — with shorter-term contracts also climbing sharply — points to genuine shifts in diplomatic expectations rather than isolated betting patterns.
Wall Street has responded positively to signs of US-Iran peace progress, with major indexes surging and oil prices pulling back as investors price reduced geopolitical risk. However, Reuters reporting highlights the fragility of current negotiations, with one chief investment officer warning that the truce risks sliding into "indefinite stalemate." The Institute for the Study of War's April 12 special report on Iran provides additional context for the current diplomatic landscape.
The market's resolution hinges on a "permanent" peace deal signed by the May 31, 2026 deadline, setting a high bar that requires more than temporary ceasefires or partial agreements. Traders will watch for concrete diplomatic milestones, formal treaty language, and Congressional ratification processes that would satisfy the market's strict resolution criteria.
