Politics / 1 MIN READ
More than 80 Labour MPs have called for the prime minister to step down, and Eurasia Group now puts the chance he leaves office this year at 80 percent.
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Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
More than 80 Labour MPs have publicly called for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, following a devastating defeat in local elections earlier this month. The scale of the rebellion has shifted the political calculus in London and raised the prospect of a leadership change before the end of 2026.
Labour lost control of over 30 councils in the May 7 local elections, a result that the party's internal critics have described as a repudiation of Starmer's leadership. The losses accelerated a wave of public defections from within the parliamentary party, with dozens of MPs signing letters or making statements demanding a new leader.
On May 12, geopolitical risk consultancy Eurasia Group raised its estimate that Starmer will be ousted this year to 80%, up from lower levels earlier in the spring. The firm cited the combination of election results and the breadth of the parliamentary rebellion as factors that make it increasingly difficult for Starmer to retain control of the party.
Starmer's office has not issued any statement indicating a timeline for departure, and no formal leadership challenge has yet been scheduled under the party's rules. However, the growing number of MPs publicly calling for change has made internal pressure the central dynamic in British politics this spring.
The market pricing, which has risen sharply this week, reflects a view among participants that the rebellion is past the point where Starmer can easily reassert control. The key question in the coming weeks is whether the parliamentary rebellion coalesces around a single challenger capable of triggering a formal contest.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
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