
Politics / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekPaxton Holds 93 Percent Edge in Texas GOP Senate Runoff
Prediction markets price Texas Attorney General as heavy favorite over incumbent Cornyn one week before May 26 Republican primary.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
Local election losses triggered a wave of defiance within the party, with borrowing costs hitting multi-year highs amid the political turmoil.

Market data
Current live odds
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
More than 70 Labour Members of Parliament have called for Sir Keir Starmer to resign as party leader and Prime Minister, following a devastating local election result that saw Labour lose control of over 30 councils across England. The scale of the revolt has thrown the government into its most acute crisis since taking office.
The demand for Starmer's departure follows the local elections earlier this month, in which Labour suffered significant losses, particularly in traditional strongholds. The result sparked immediate internal calls for a leadership change, with the number of Labour MPs publicly urging Starmer to step down passing the 70 mark, according to reports from CNBC.
The political instability has also rattled financial markets. UK 10-year gilt yields rose to approximately 5.101%, a post-2008 peak, as investors priced in the heightened uncertainty over the government's future and its ability to deliver on fiscal and economic policy.
Starmer has so far resisted the calls to resign, arguing that the party must focus on its long-term agenda. However, the pressure shows no sign of abating, with some party figures warning that a formal leadership challenge could be triggered if the threshold of 81 MPs calling for a vote is reached. The coming days will be critical in determining whether the rebellion can be contained or will escalate further.
The market is now pricing a 68.5% probability that Starmer will leave office by June 30, a sharp increase of 37 percentage points in the last 24 hours, reflecting the rapid escalation of the crisis. What to watch next is whether the number of MPs calling for a vote of no confidence reaches the formal threshold, which would force a leadership contest.

Politics / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekPrediction markets price Texas Attorney General as heavy favorite over incumbent Cornyn one week before May 26 Republican primary.