Live market ticker. Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders: 0 percent; Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31: 18 percent; MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1: 0 percent; Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026: 42 percent; Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026: 1 percent
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders0%-60.4ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 3118%-76.9ppPOLYMARKET·MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 10%-22.4ppPOLYMARKET·Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 202642%+16.8ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 20261%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by May 313%+0.2ppPOLYMARKET·Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup1%POLYMARKET·the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals3%-0.2ppPOLYMARKET·US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 3110%POLYMARKET·US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202618%POLYMARKET·Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair0%POLYMARKET·China invade Taiwan by end of 20267%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by June 306%-1.0ppPOLYMARKET·the U.S. invade Iran before 202730%POLYMARKET·Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 318%POLYMARKET·the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting0%POLYMARKET·Finland win Eurovision 202634%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 202613%-12.5ppPOLYMARKET·Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election2%-0.2ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 396%+29.0ppPOLYMARKET·Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 202629%-4.0ppPOLYMARKET·WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May69%-6.0ppPOLYMARKET·Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June17%+3.0ppPOLYMARKET·Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·Bitcoin Up or Down on May 371%+22.0ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 155%POLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May19%POLYMARKET·US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 20262%-0.9ppPOLYMARKET·Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Moyuka Uchijima56%POLYMARKET·Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders0%-60.4ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 3118%-76.9ppPOLYMARKET·MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 10%-22.4ppPOLYMARKET·Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 202642%+16.8ppPOLYMARKET·Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 20261%POLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by May 313%+0.2ppPOLYMARKET·Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup1%POLYMARKET·the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals3%-0.2ppPOLYMARKET·US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 3110%POLYMARKET·US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202618%POLYMARKET·Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair0%POLYMARKET·China invade Taiwan by end of 20267%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·the Iranian regime fall by June 306%-1.0ppPOLYMARKET·the U.S. invade Iran before 202730%POLYMARKET·Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 318%POLYMARKET·the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting0%POLYMARKET·Finland win Eurovision 202634%-0.1ppPOLYMARKET·UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 202613%-12.5ppPOLYMARKET·Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election2%-0.2ppPOLYMARKET·Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 396%+29.0ppPOLYMARKET·Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 202629%-4.0ppPOLYMARKET·WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May69%-6.0ppPOLYMARKET·Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June17%+3.0ppPOLYMARKET·Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination1%POLYMARKET·Bitcoin Up or Down on May 371%+22.0ppPOLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 155%POLYMARKET·Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May19%POLYMARKET·US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 20262%-0.9ppPOLYMARKET·Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Moyuka Uchijima56%POLYMARKET·
Prediction markets are pricing Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair at 95 percent, up marginally from 24 hours earlier as $444,000 in daily volume reinforces trader conviction that Trump's nominee faces minimal Senate resistance. The Polymarket contract has drawn $6.5 million in total volume since launch, reflecting sustained interest in what many consider a foregone conclusion.
The near-certain probability emerges as Senate Banking Committee leadership signals confirmation hearings could occur within weeks, according to USA Today reporting. CNBC noted that Warsh has cleared preliminary hurdles toward his Senate hearing, while CNN confirmed that confirmation proceedings are advancing on the Republican timeline.
Trader confidence appears anchored in Warsh's previous Federal Reserve experience and Republican Senate control, though his extensive financial holdings have drawn scrutiny. The Washington Post reported that financial disclosures show Warsh could become the wealthiest Fed chair in modern history, while Gizmodo highlighted his deep investments in technology and cryptocurrency ventures that could present conflicts with monetary policy decisions.
The 95 percent probability leaves little room for market surprise, suggesting traders see confirmation as procedural rather than contested. Any meaningful shift below 90 percent would signal unexpected Senate opposition or disclosure complications, while movement toward certainty would require clear procedural advancement or bipartisan endorsements that remove remaining doubt about the outcome.
