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Polymarket traders lowered probability to 30.5% after company added 535 bitcoin and executives said any sales would be tactical, not a reversal of accumulation.
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MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
MicroStrategy purchased 535 bitcoin for $43 million on Monday, days after executive chairman Michael Saylor said the company might sell some of its bitcoin holdings for the first time. The move came as Polymarket traders reduced the probability that MicroStrategy will sell any bitcoin by May 31 to 30.5%, down 11 percentage points in 24 hours.
Saylor’s comment during the Q1 2026 earnings call on May 5 triggered a 4% drop in MSTR stock after hours. He said the firm could sell bitcoin to pay dividends on its Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, which carries an 11.5% yield. The company reported a net loss of $12.54 billion for the quarter, driven by $14.46 billion in unrealized losses on its bitcoin holdings as the price fell from $90,000 to the $60,000–65,000 range.
CEO Phong Le later clarified the framework in a CNBC interview and on social media. He said bitcoin sales would only occur when “accretive to bitcoin per share,” specifically when the company’s market value trades below its book value. He added that the firm’s leverage is around 10–15% and that annual dividend obligations of $1.5 billion are small relative to bitcoin’s daily trading volume of over $60 billion.
Saylor moved to contain the narrative over the weekend, stating on a podcast that for every bitcoin sold, the company would buy 10 to 20 more. The Monday purchase of 535 BTC at an average price of $80,340 per coin appears to reinforce that commitment. The firm now holds 818,869 BTC, acquired for $61.86 billion at an average cost of $75,540 per bitcoin. The purchase was disclosed in a Form 8-K filing.
JPMorgan analysts estimate that if MicroStrategy maintains its current pace, total bitcoin purchases in 2026 could reach $30 billion. The company’s software division posted its strongest quarter in a decade, with revenue up 12%. CEO Le described the shift in strategy as “math over ideology,” noting that the deferred tax asset from paper losses creates a tax-loss harvesting opportunity similar to a maneuver executed in December 2022.
The Polymarket contract now implies a 30.5% chance of any bitcoin sale before June 1, down from above 40% prior to the week’s events. The next milestone is MicroStrategy’s monthly bitcoin holdings update, typically filed within days of month-end, which will reveal whether the firm continued to accumulate in May.
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