Politics / 2 MIN READ
More than 70 Labour MPs have publicly called for the prime minister to resign, and at least one cabinet minister urged him to set a departure timetable.
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Current live odds
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Traders on Polymarket now price a 34.65% probability that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will leave office by May 31, a 28.2-percentage-point surge in 24 hours on $297,947 in trading volume. The contract has drawn $1.29 million since listing, reflecting a deepening crisis within the Labour Party.
The revolt escalated after Labour lost control of more than 30 councils and around 1,500 councillors in England’s local elections last week, with voters splitting between Reform UK and the Greens. More than 70 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable, approaching the 81 signatures needed to trigger a formal leadership contest under party rules.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood privately urged Starmer to consider a timetable, following a similar intervention from Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, according to reports. Four junior government officials resigned Monday evening, including aides to Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy. Backbencher Catherine West said she is collecting signatures to force a leadership election in September.
Starmer attempted to steady his position with a speech Monday, taking responsibility for the election losses and vowing to press on, but the address was widely dismissed as insufficient. He faces a make-or-break Cabinet meeting Tuesday, and Streeting is scheduled to meet him Wednesday morning to discuss the party’s path forward. The prime minister’s office has insisted he does not intend to quit.
Political analysts expect Starmer’s premiership to end this year. Eurasia Group raised the probability of his ouster by year-end to 80%, from 65%, with a 35% chance of a forced leadership election by September. The leading contenders to replace him include Streeting, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, though Burnham would need to win a parliamentary seat first.
The market now implies a 34.65% chance Starmer is gone before June, with the broader December contract pricing an 87% probability of departure by year-end. Traders are watching whether Streeting launches a formal challenge or the party settles into an uneasy truce during the King’s Speech parliamentary session this week.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
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