Bitcoin climbed above $77,000 on Friday as a rally in bonds, gold and digital assets revived risk appetite. Washington helped fuel the move, but the legislative path for the biggest crypto market-structure bill remains much less certain than the price action suggests.
Polymarket traders give the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act a 24.5% chance of being signed into law before the end of 2026. The contract has fallen four percentage points over the past day, with more than $240,000 traded in 24 hours.
The Senate is not starting from zero. Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 before the chamber left for its August recess. The procedural vote is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. Eastern on September 15, according to the Senate's published schedule.
That vote would open the door to considering the bill; it would not enact it. The measure would still need to navigate Senate debate, amendments and final passage, resolve any differences with the House and reach the president before the year-end deadline measured by the Polymarket contract.
The bill has already made meaningful progress. The Senate Banking Committee advanced it on a 15–9 bipartisan vote in May. In July, Senator Cynthia Lummis released updated text combining work from the Banking and Agriculture committees, an effort to settle which federal agencies would oversee different parts of the digital-asset market.
The timing explains the market's caution. A scheduled procedural vote is tangible progress, but the remaining calendar is compressed and the legislation still needs enough support to clear the Senate. Every amendment or delay reduces the time available for the two chambers to settle a final version.
Bitcoin's rally is broader than the CLARITY Act alone. The Associated Press reported that Treasury-market developments supported both bitcoin and gold, while renewed pressure from the White House for congressional action added another tailwind for crypto. Bitcoin had traded below $60,000 at the end of June before recovering above $77,000 on Friday.
The split between the asset price and the legislative contract is the story. Traders can welcome a better chance of regulatory progress without believing that a complete bill will become law in 2026. At 24.5%, the market sees a live route—but still a narrow one.
