British Columbia’s snap election has opened with an early advantage for the opposition Conservatives, complicating Premier David Eby’s decision to send the province to the polls on October 24. An Angus Reid Institute survey conducted from September 22 through September 24 put the BC Conservatives at 43% among decided and leaning voters, eight points ahead of Eby’s New Democratic Party at 35%. The reversal came only days after Eby dissolved the legislature, turning what was intended as a bid for a renewed mandate into a campaign that begins with the governing party on the defensive.
The poll suggests the election call itself may be shaping the opening mood. Sixty-two percent of respondents said it was too soon to vote, while 65% said Eby was putting his interest in staying in power ahead of the province’s interests. Cost of living, health care, jobs, housing and public safety ranked above relations with the United States as voter priorities. That matters because Eby presented pressure from Washington and the need for a stronger provincial mandate as central reasons for calling the election. The campaign now has to connect that argument to the issues voters say are most urgent.
Lorne Doerkson enters the race as the interim Conservative leader after a turbulent period for the opposition. The party changed leaders and lost lawmakers to rival groups, but the election call was followed by a reunification agreement that brought several defectors back. Angus Reid still found that 56% of respondents did not believe the Conservatives were ready to govern, and 40% said they did not know enough about Doerkson to rate him. The eight-point lead is therefore better understood as an opening opportunity than a settled judgment about who should run the province. One in five respondents remained undecided.
Prediction-market pricing reflected the same uncertainty. Polymarket traders put Doerkson at roughly a 52% implied probability of becoming the next premier and Eby near 49%, with Doerkson gaining about 13 percentage points over the previous day. Those prices are trader estimates rather than a seat projection or opinion poll, and the event had been open for only a few days. The near-even split shows that traders see the new poll as consequential without treating it as decisive, especially in a province where regional vote distribution can matter as much as the province-wide headline number.
The campaign’s next phase will test whether the Conservatives can convert frustration with the election timing into confidence in their team. Doerkson must introduce himself to voters, hold a recently divided caucus together and withstand scrutiny of the party’s readiness. Eby must rebuild support among former NDP voters, defend his record on affordability and health care, and explain why an early election serves the province. New surveys, candidate debates and local riding campaigns will show whether the initial backlash persists or fades. For now, the snap election has created the competitive contest that Eby may have hoped to avoid.
