Guardians’ Odds Surge to 75% as Reds Turn to Struggling Paddack

The Cleveland Guardians’ probability of beating the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday jumped 37 percentage points to 75.5% on Polymarket, after the Reds signed struggling right-hander Chris Paddack off waivers to start the game.

Paddack (0-5, 7.63 ERA) was designated for assignment by the Miami Marlins on May 5 and released. The Reds signed him Wednesday to a one-year deal after losing pitchers Hunter Greene (elbow), Brandon Williamson (shoulder) and Rhett Lowder (shoulder) to injuries. Manager Terry Francona said of Paddack: 'He had a tough time in Florida, and we needed a pitcher. And the hope is that he catches fire and gives us some help.'

The Guardians counter with left-hander Joey Cantillo (3-1, 2.98 ERA), who has won his last two starts, allowing one run over 11 innings combined. Cantillo has faced the Reds once in his career, striking out the only batter he encountered.

The Reds won Friday’s series opener 7-6, but the bullpen nearly squandered a six-run lead after Graham Ashcraft allowed four runs without recording an out. Cleveland rookie Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft, had two hits and an RBI in the eighth inning.

The market implies bettors expect the Guardians to exploit Paddack’s recent struggles and Cantillo’s strong form. The game’s outcome will settle the contract after the final pitch.