Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen back to single digits, undercutting hopes that one of the world's most important energy chokepoints is close to normal operation.
Seven commodity ships crossed the strait on Thursday, according to Kpler tracking data reported by Reuters. That was half the previous day's tally. Four vessels entered the waterway and three exited, with no very large crude carriers or liquefied-natural-gas tankers among them.
Polymarket traders put the probability of traffic returning to normal by August 31 at just 0.35%. The contract has attracted about $279,000 in trading over the past 24 hours and more than $15 million overall. At that price, the market is treating a full recovery before the end of the month as an extreme long shot.
The security picture supports that caution. The International Maritime Organization had recorded 68 confirmed incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Middle East region as of August 21, along with 19 seafarer deaths. Its incident list includes ships damaged in the strait on August 15 and August 17.
Energy flows remain far below their pre-conflict baseline. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that crude oil and petroleum liquids moving through Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. The comparable figure was 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The EIA's August outlook assumes that Hormuz shipments remain severely constrained through this month and increase only gradually in September. It does not expect production and trade patterns to return broadly to their pre-conflict shape until early 2027.
That distinction matters. A handful of successful transits can relieve pressure on individual cargoes without amounting to normal commercial passage. Regular flows require shipowners, crews and insurers to believe the route is consistently safe—not simply passable on selected nights.
The latest traffic data show that the recovery remains fragile. With the August 31 deadline approaching, the prediction market is aligned with the official and commercial evidence: normality is not yet close.
