The Israel Defense Forces confirmed on August 14 that no formal ceasefire agreement exists with Iran, but said Israel has not launched any offensive strikes against Iran since late July. The military stated it reserves the right to respond to any aggression, underscoring the fragile nature of the current calm.
Iran has set conditions for any deal. On August 12, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated it will not accept a ceasefire without guarantees against future strikes, reparations, and an end to Israeli operations in Lebanon. Those demands have stalled diplomatic efforts, with U.S.-Iran talks postponed.
The absence of a formal agreement and Iran's conditions suggest the de facto pause in hostilities remains provisional. No new qualifying military strikes have been reported as of mid-August, according to the IDF statement.
The market prices the ceasefire continuing through the end of August at 92.5%, with $165,571 traded in the last 24 hours. The key risk is whether either side resumes offensive action before the August 31 deadline.
The next event to watch is any public statement or military move from either government that could break the current de-escalation. The market closes on August 31.
