Iran Invasion Odds Fall to 34 Percent

Prediction markets are pricing a 34% probability that the United States will invade Iran before 2027, down sharply from 60% just 24 hours earlier as traders reassess the likelihood of military escalation in the Middle East.

The market saw $1.9 million in trading volume over the past day, contributing to total volume of $6.5 million on the question. The sharp probability decline comes as regional tensions continue amid reports of infrastructure attacks and political rhetoric, though traders appear to be betting that diplomatic solutions or measured responses will prevail over full-scale invasion.

The timing of the market move coincides with mixed signals from the region. Reuters reported explosives found near a critical gas pipeline in Serbia and Hungary, while firefighters contained a fire at drone-hit oil storage facilities in Basra. Meanwhile, reports indicate escalatory rhetoric from political figures, including what CNBC described as expletive-filled Iran threats posted on social media.

The market remains active with substantial volume, suggesting continued uncertainty about U.S.-Iran relations through 2026. Traders will likely monitor diplomatic developments, regional proxy conflicts, and policy statements from Washington as the market approaches its December 2026 resolution date.