Los Angeles Councilmember Nithya Raman has opened an 11-point lead over Mayor Karen Bass in a new survey that abruptly changes the shape of the November runoff. The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found Raman supported by 39% of likely voters and Bass by 28%. Another 33% were undecided. The result is Raman’s strongest public showing of the campaign and arrives less than two weeks before mail ballots are due to begin reaching voters for the November 3 election. It also gives both campaigns a concrete test: whether Raman can convert an early advantage into a durable coalition, or Bass can bring a large pool of uncommitted voters back toward the incumbent.
The survey was conducted online among roughly 2,100 likely Los Angeles voters from September 15 through September 20, with a margin of error of about three percentage points. Its image findings are especially difficult for Bass. Poll director Mark DiCamillo told CBS Los Angeles that views of the mayor were negative by roughly two and a half to one, while opinions of Raman were nearly even. Bass’s campaign cautioned that the result is only one poll, and UCLA’s Zev Yaroslavsky called it an outlier compared with surveys showing a closer race. Those caveats matter because undecided voters still outnumber either candidate’s lead and because former primary candidate Spencer Pratt’s supporters have not settled decisively behind one finalist.
The prediction market has moved with the new information. Kalshi’s Raman contract traded near 57% Friday morning, compared with the 45% snapshot attached to MPN’s September 21 coverage, while Bass stood near 43%. That 12-point change is large enough to qualify for a fresh look even though the race remains inside MPN’s four-day event cooldown. The selected contract had about $42,000 in latest-day activity, and the two-candidate event had roughly $34.6 million in total recorded volume. Those prices express traders’ expectations rather than a forecast from election officials, and they can reverse quickly as new polling arrives.
The next phase will turn on the issues voters identified as most pressing, including housing affordability, crime and infrastructure. Bass is emphasizing her record on housing and arguing that the contest remains close. Raman is presenting the poll as evidence that voters want a different approach to city services and neighborhood outcomes. The unusually large undecided share leaves room for either message to gain ground, particularly once ballots arrive and campaign advertising intensifies. One survey does not decide a mayoral election, but it has changed the burden of proof: Raman now has to defend a visible lead, while Bass must show that the poll captured a temporary reaction rather than a lasting judgment on her first term.
