No. 1 Texas and Oklahoma meet Saturday at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas for the 122nd Red River Rivalry, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. CT) on ABC. The two programs arrive in very different places. Texas is 4-0 and 1-0 in the SEC and still sits atop the AP poll with 61 first-place votes. Oklahoma is 2-2 and 0-1 in league play, unranked, and trying to recover from a lopsided loss at Georgia. Both teams had last week off, giving each an extra week to prepare for the State Fair showdown.
Oklahoma's problem has been points. The Sooners have not scored more than 14 in any of their last three games, according to NBC Sports, and their most recent outing was a 41-13 loss at No. 2 Georgia on Sept. 26 in which quarterback John Mateer lost two fumbles and threw an interception in the first half as Oklahoma fell behind 28-0, the Associated Press reported. Mateer enters with eight touchdown passes and four interceptions, all four of those picks coming in the last three games. The defense has kept Oklahoma competitive, allowing 122.5 passing yards per game and a 23.1% third-down conversion rate, per NBC Sports. It will be shorthanded: Friday's SEC availability report listed cornerback Eli Bowen as questionable, with left tackle Fred Hinton, tackle Michael Fasusi, linebacker Taylor Heim, receiver Trell Harris, running back Xavier Robinson and cornerback Jacobe Johnson out, according to Sooners On SI.
Texas has had its own uneven stretch. The Longhorns held off No. 14 Tennessee 20-17 in Knoxville on Sept. 26, a game in which their defense recorded 10 sacks but Arch Manning was sacked six times and threw an interception without a touchdown pass, according to NBC Sports. Manning has thrown an interception in three of his four games. Texas does expect its leading rusher back: running back Hollywood Smothers, who sat out the Tennessee win while tending to a leg injury, was left off the team's first availability report of the week, the Austin American-Statesman reported. Texas won last year's meeting 23-6 and has taken three of the last four games in the series.
Sportsbooks see a Texas win as the likeliest outcome but not a lopsided one. Earlier in the week DraftKings made the Longhorns 8.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -325, and the 39.5-point total was the lowest on the week's college board, a sign oddsmakers expect the defenses to control the afternoon, NBC Sports reported. Prediction markets land in the same place. On Kalshi, Oklahoma's contract to win traded near 26 cents shortly before kickoff, pricing the Sooners at about a 26% chance and Texas near 74%.
The stakes are lopsided too. A Texas win keeps the top-ranked Longhorns unbeaten and 2-0 in SEC play heading into the second half of October. An Oklahoma upset would give the Sooners their first conference win of the season and, as NBC Sports put it, a path back into the playoff hunt after three straight games in which their offense has stalled. The result should be known by early Saturday evening Eastern time.
