Polymarket Odds on MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Sink to 27.5% After Company Buys More BTC

Prediction-market traders have slammed the probability that MicroStrategy will sell any Bitcoin by May 31 after the company — now renamed Strategy — disclosed a fresh Bitcoin purchase and executives doubled down on the “net accumulator” stance. The contract on Polymarket fell to 27.5% on Wednesday, a 28-percentage-point drop in 24 hours, with $530,436 in daily volume.

Strategy disclosed Monday that it purchased 535 Bitcoin for approximately $43 million at an average price of $80,340 per coin, according to a Form 8-K filing with the SEC. The company now holds 818,869 BTC acquired for roughly $61.86 billion. The purchase came six days after executive chairman Michael Saylor told investors on Strategy’s Q1 earnings call that the company was prepared to sell a portion of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time.

Saylor moved to contain the fallout from that statement over the following weekend. In a podcast interview, he said that for every Bitcoin sold, the company would buy 10 to 20 more. “You should be a net accumulator of Bitcoin,” he said. “You want to end every year with more Bitcoin than you started.” CEO Phong Le added on the earnings call that any sales would be “tactical” and driven by math, not ideology. “At the point where selling Bitcoin versus selling equity to pay a dividend is better for our Bitcoin-per-share, and for our common shareholders, we will do it,” Le said.

The financial pressure that prompted the sell-signal discussion is real. Bitcoin fell 23% in Q1 2026 — from $87,500 to $67,700 — and under fair-value accounting rules adopted in January 2025, Strategy is required to mark its full Bitcoin position to market each quarter. That produced a $12.54 billion unrealized loss in Q1, running directly through the income statement. More than 434,000 of the company’s coins were purchased above $80,000, generating a $7.6 billion unrealized loss and a $2.2 billion deferred tax asset at a 29% effective tax rate. Saylor framed any potential sale as a tax-loss harvesting maneuver identical to one the company executed in December 2022.

The market reaction suggests traders now see the “never sell” narrative as intact for the near term. Monday’s purchase and Saylor’s weekend remarks have shifted expectations sharply away from a near-term liquidation, though the contract still implies a 27.5% chance that some sale occurs by May 31. With the company carrying $8.2 billion in convertible debt and $1.5 billion in annual dividend obligations tied to its STRC preferred stock, cash demands remain. Traders will watch Strategy’s weekly Bitcoin disclosures and any further commentary from Saylor or Le for signals that the tactical-sale framework is being activated.