No. 19 USC visits Penn State on Saturday night for the annual White Out at Beaver Stadium, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. The Trojans arrive 5-1 and 2-1 in the Big Ten. Penn State is 3-2, 0-2 in conference play and unranked, and is trying to avoid a third straight loss in Matt Campbell's first season as head coach, according to Field Level Media. Both teams' College Football Playoff hopes are on the line.
Penn State's slide has come in two different forms. The Nittany Lions lost 24-20 at home to Wisconsin on Sept. 26 after allowing two touchdowns in the final four minutes, then were routed 34-13 at Northwestern last Friday, outgained 506-291 while the Wildcats held the ball for more than 36 minutes, Field Level Media reported. Quarterback Rocco Becht went 26 of 41 for 243 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in that loss, according to the Associated Press. "We lack our identity right now across the board," Campbell said. The Philadelphia Inquirer called Saturday Penn State's best chance at a signature win to keep any playoff hopes alive, with nearly 100 recruits expected in the stands. Linebacker Alex Tatsch and defensive tackle Armstrong Nnodim are listed as questionable, according to Onward State.
USC has had a bumpy stretch of its own. The Trojans took a 14-point home loss to Oregon on Sept. 26, then trailed Washington 21-10 midway through the third quarter last week before rallying for a 25-21 win, helped by defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart's 48-yard fumble return for the go-ahead touchdown, Field Level Media reported. Jayden Maiava finished 21 of 34 for 245 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while USC committed nine penalties and averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Linebacker Taylor "Taybo" Johnson was added to the Trojans' out list on Thursday, Sports Illustrated reported, noting that a loss would likely leave USC needing to win out to be considered for the 12-team playoff in Lincoln Riley's fifth season.
The market has moved toward the home team during the week. The opening line made USC a 1.5-point favorite, according to the AP, but by Saturday DraftKings listed Penn State as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 54.5, Onward State reported. Prediction markets read the game the same way: on Kalshi, Penn State's contract to win traded around 54 cents on Saturday afternoon, about a 54% chance, leaving USC near 46%. Both readings put the game close to a toss-up rather than a clear call for either side.
The teams have met only once in the regular season in the last decade, a 33-30 overtime Penn State win on Oct. 12, 2024, in which the Nittany Lions came back from a 20-6 halftime deficit in Los Angeles. Riley also has history with Campbell from their Big 12 years, going 4-2 against Campbell's Iowa State teams while at Oklahoma. Whatever happens Saturday night, the schedule does not ease: Penn State plays at Michigan on Oct. 17, and USC visits Wisconsin on Oct. 24.
