Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in a new survey of likely Texas voters, intensifying the fight over a Senate seat the Republican Party has long treated as secure. The AARP poll released Thursday puts Talarico at 48 percent and Paxton at 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The four-point spread sits close to the survey’s margin of error, so it is better read as evidence of a competitive race than a settled advantage. Still, a Democrat approaching half the vote in Texas forces both parties to reassess where they spend money and time during the final stretch of the midterm campaign.
The poll also shows why neither campaign can rely on a simple statewide headline. AARP said Paxton performs especially well among voters age 50 and older, a bloc that is typically more likely to cast a ballot, while Talarico’s strength among the broader likely-voter sample gives him the overall edge. Talarico, a state representative and former teacher, has tried to build a coalition around economic pressure and a less combative political style. Paxton, the state attorney general, enters the general election with President Donald Trump’s support but also a long record of legal and political controversy. The contrast has turned the race into a test of whether Republican loyalty can overcome concerns about the nominee in a state Democrats have not won statewide in decades.
Kalshi’s Texas Senate event remains essentially even despite the fresh poll. Contracts tied to Talarico and Paxton were both trading around 50 percent, with more than $11 million in combined activity across the two leading party outcomes and substantial open interest. Those prices are trader estimates, not vote forecasts, and the market’s tie is consistent with the survey’s uncertainty rather than a contradiction of its four-point spread. A single poll can move the conversation without proving a durable lead, particularly when undecided voters are numerous and turnout assumptions matter as much as stated preference.
The financial response is already visible. A political group aligned with Trump began a $10 million advertising campaign supporting Paxton and attacking Talarico, its first major midterm expenditure of the cycle. That decision signals that national Republicans see risk in waiting, even if Texas still leans toward their party. Talarico must now show that his lead survives an onslaught of negative advertising and that his support extends beyond voters most eager to reject Paxton. Paxton must unify Republicans who backed other candidates and keep older voters turning out at their usual rates. The next round of independent polling, campaign-finance reports and early-voting data will show whether Texas is experiencing a brief tightening or a lasting genuine realignment with consequences for control of the Senate.
