A tanker off the coast of Oman was hit by an unknown projectile on August 1, damaging its engine room, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations. The incident occurs as the Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump has ordered the military to prepare new strikes on Iran that could begin as soon as this weekend.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr, said on August 1 that Tehran would tighten its declared closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to a U.S. blockade. Shipping traffic through the critical waterway has been heavily depressed since the conflict began, with transits through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait falling by around one-fifth, according to CNN.
Oil prices have surged amid the disruptions. Benchmark Brent crude rose more than 1% on July 31 after Iran said it stopped two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and was on track for a 23% monthly gain, according to Al-Monitor. The conflict has widened regionally: Kuwait's military reported destroying attacking drones on July 31, with debris causing damage but no casualties.
The developments reduce the likelihood that the U.S. and Iran will observe a continuous 14-day period without American military action, the condition that would constitute an effective ceasefire. Prediction markets tracking the outcome now price the chance at 31.5%, down 13.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Whether the U.S. proceeds with the reported strikes this weekend will be a key test of the ceasefire question. Neither government has confirmed ceasefire negotiations.
