The United States military has conducted at least 64 strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels in international waters since September 2025, killing 221 people, according to a Los Angeles Times investigation. The first strike, on September 2, 2025, sank a boat off Venezuela, killing 11 people. The most recent known strike occurred on June 21, 2026, in the Eastern Pacific, killing two and leaving six survivors adrift at sea.
President Trump has repeatedly threatened to escalate the campaign to land-based strikes inside Mexican territory, saying in a statement to the Los Angeles Times, "Now we're going to go and focus on the land." Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has firmly rejected any violation of Mexican sovereignty, stating that Mexico will never accept such actions. As of late July 2026, no U.S. strike on Mexican soil has been reported.
In parallel, the Trump administration has designated eight Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, most recently adding the Juárez Cartel and Los Viagras in July 2026. Mexican security forces, with U.S. intelligence support, killed CJNG leader Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," on February 22-23, 2026, in an operation that also seized rocket launchers capable of downing aircraft.
A June 2, 2026 Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing revealed that evidence of drugs aboard a vessel is not among the classified criteria for ordering a strike. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified that drug presence is not a targeting requirement, drawing scrutiny from Senator Tim Kaine. The admission has intensified debate over the legal and operational basis for the maritime campaign.
The question now is whether the administration will authorize a strike on Mexican territory before year's end. The White House has not publicly outlined a specific plan for a land-based operation, and no Authorization for Use of Military Force has been sought from Congress. Any escalation would likely require a formal announcement or credible reports of a strike inside Mexico.
