President Donald Trump said he will hold off on strikes against Iran after claiming Mideast allies reached the parameters of a deal to end the war, including the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House announcement followed a call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who cautioned against fresh strikes, and came as the U.S. and Israel had prepared one of the harshest planned attacks on Iran.
Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency denied that Tehran asked Washington to pause, calling Trump's assertion a new lie. Iran's acting defense minister, Majid Ebn-e-Reza, said forces remain on high alert and ready for any eventuality, warning that Trump had backed down within the context of psychological operations, according to The Guardian.
The dueling accounts leave real uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz will actually reopen in time for commercial traffic to return to normal levels by the end of August. A prediction market tracking whether IMF Portwatch data will record a seven-day moving average of transit calls at or above 60 by August 31 currently prices that outcome at 11.5%.
The next step to watch is whether a formal U.S.-Iran ceasefire or deal is signed and implemented, including the lifting of the naval blockade and verified vessel transits that would be reflected in IMF Portwatch data, which remains the definitive measure of traffic normalization.
