World / 1 MIN READ
With the treaty lapsed and no formal talks confirmed, the window for a new nuclear agreement remains narrow.
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World
US-Russia Arms Control Gap Widens as New START Expires Without Successor
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U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30?
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Hamas Agrees to Disarm in U.S.-Brokered Deal as Israeli Skepticism Threatens Implementation
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World / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekThe phased roadmap requires a weapons inventory and deployment of international forces, but Israel has not endorsed the plan and a key deadline has lapsed.
World / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekThe U.S. envoy's latest round of diplomacy comes amid a stalled conflict and an indefinite naval blockade of Iranian ports.
World / 1 MIN READ
Despite a brief lift in June, the blockade was reimposed in July, and no fresh announcement has been made ahead of the August 7 deadline.
© 2026 Prediction Market Network. Market data references Polymarket and Kalshi and may change rapidly.
The New START treaty, the last remaining pillar of U.S.-Russia strategic nuclear arms control, expired on February 5, 2026, leaving both nations' strategic arsenals without legally binding limits for the first time in decades. As of August 2026, no formal negotiations or interim verification measures between the two countries have been publicly confirmed.
President Donald Trump has said he can replace the expiring US-Russia arms control deal with a better agreement that includes China, a position that shifts the diplomatic scope beyond a simple bilateral extension. That stance adds complexity to any potential successor talks.
The absence of confirmed negotiations or verification measures underscores the distance between Washington and Moscow on the issue. The market prices the chance of a deal by the September 30 deadline at 3.25%, with $7,407 in 24-hour volume, reflecting the lack of visible progress.
No announcement of formal talks or a summit has been made, leaving the timeline for a potential agreement extremely tight. Any diplomatic catalyst would likely need to emerge soon to shift the outlook.