How To Read Market Probabilities
How PMN translates market prices, live odds, probability moves, and market volume into readable context.
Probability Is A Snapshot
A 60 percent market price means the market is pricing the outcome as more likely than not at that moment. It does not mean the outcome is guaranteed, and it does not mean PMN endorses the market's view.
PMN usually compares live odds with the odds at publish time because the direction of travel can be more revealing than the raw number.
Moves Matter
A five-point move in a liquid market can matter more than a twenty-point move in a small, stale market. Volume, recency, provider, and resolution date all affect how much weight a reader should give the signal.
When PMN highlights a move, the goal is to explain what changed in the world and why the market responded.
Use The Market As One Input
Good market reading combines price action with sources, deadlines, incentives, and uncertainty. The price is a clue. The story is the work of interpreting it.