Markets / 1 MIN READ
Polymarket traders slashed the implied probability by 15 points in 24 hours as the July 28-29 Fed meeting looms.
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© 2026 Prediction Market Network. Market data references Polymarket and Kalshi and may change rapidly.
Polymarket's contract on whether Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July now carries a 10.5% implied probability, down 15 percentage points over the past 24 hours. The market closes on August 1 at 04:00 UTC, leaving just four days for a rally that would require a roughly 12.5% gain from current levels near $60,000. The steep drop reflects a sudden shift in sentiment as traders digest the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting on July 28-29, which Crypto.news identified as a key catalyst for the month.
Several price-forecast models still project a July high above $67,500, creating a notable divergence between algorithmic predictions and live market pricing. Coincodex's July 2026 forecast shows a monthly high of $73,702 and an end-of-month forecast of $61,044, while LongForecast's outlook places the range at $56,282 to $73,289 with a month-end close of $61,044. CoinGecko's prediction table gives Bitcoin a 49.0% chance of reaching $67,500 by end of July and a 77.5% chance of hitting $65,000, suggesting that Polymarket's 10.5% probability is far more pessimistic than those models.
The 15-point decline in 24 hours indicates that traders are pricing in a diminished likelihood of a late-month surge, possibly due to the Fed's anticipated stance on interest rates. Bitcoin entered July near $60,000, and the Fed meeting represents the last major scheduled event before the market closes. A hawkish signal from the central bank could further suppress risk appetite, while a dovish surprise might revive the bullish case, though Polymarket's current pricing suggests the market expects the former.
With the contract expiring in under four days, the probability gap between Polymarket and forecast models highlights the tension between algorithmic optimism and trader skepticism. The next 72 hours will determine whether Bitcoin can stage a dramatic recovery or whether the 10.5% probability will prove prescient as the month ends.