Crypto Clarity Act Stalls in Senate at 32 Percent

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Prediction markets now assign a 32 percent probability that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be signed into law by the end of 2026, down 8 percentage points in the past 24 hours as the Senate legislative calendar tightens. The bill, which passed the House with a 294–134 bipartisan vote on July 17, 2025, has cleared the Senate Banking Committee but remains without a scheduled floor vote as lawmakers approach the August recess.

The CLARITY Act would establish the first comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, dividing oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Senate Banking Committee approved the measure 15–9 on May 14, 2026, while the Agriculture Committee passed a companion bill in January. Staff from both committees have been working to merge the legislation, but disputes over stablecoin yield provisions and decentralized finance treatment have slowed progress. Industry analysts had highlighted August 7–10 as a practical deadline before the Senate's state work period, though the bill would not automatically expire if that window closes.

Trading volume on the question reached $143,274 over the past day, reflecting active positioning as the legislative clock runs down. Legal trackers and industry explainers published as recently as May 2026 continue to classify the bill as pending, with no record of Senate floor passage or presidential signature in congressional databases. Even after enactment, the framework would require joint SEC-CFTC rulemaking before full implementation, adding months to the regulatory timeline.

The probability decline suggests traders are recalibrating expectations around Senate scheduling constraints and unresolved policy disagreements, even as some commentary has shifted from debating whether the bill will pass to predicting when. The White House has engaged with crypto stakeholders throughout 2026, and bipartisan support in the House demonstrated unusual consensus on digital asset policy. Yet with fewer than five months remaining in the calendar year and no floor vote on the Senate schedule, markets are pricing meaningful doubt that the landmark legislation will cross the finish line before January 1, 2027.