Economy / 1 MIN READ
The central bank held rates steady in June with nine officials signaling a possible 2026 increase, while May CPI hit 4.2% driven by energy prices.
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet July 28-29, with the federal funds rate currently at 3.50%-3.75% after the committee held rates steady at its June 2026 gathering. The updated dot-plot from that meeting showed nine officials anticipate at least one 25 basis point rate increase this year, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on June 10 that the May Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% year-over-year, driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs amid ongoing Middle East tensions. The June CPI report, set for release on July 14, will provide key data ahead of the July decision.
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is navigating these price pressures in his first major policy test since assuming the role. Reuters reported on June 15 that market-implied probability for a quarter-point hike stood at 19.4% as of the June meeting, reflecting the uncertain outlook.
The next scheduled data point is the June CPI release on July 14, which could influence the committee's stance before the July 28-29 decision.
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