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Prediction markets now assign minimal probability to Iran imposing transit charges before July 31 after waiver announcement.
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© 2026 Prediction Market Network. Market data references Polymarket and Kalshi and may change rapidly.
Prediction markets assign just 4 percent odds to Iran beginning collection of Strait of Hormuz transit fees by July 31, down 28 percentage points in the past 24 hours as traders absorbed the timeline implications of Tehran's announced 60-day waiver period. The sharp decline in implied probability follows Reuters reporting on June 19 that Iran would suspend anticipated fees during bilateral negotiations, pushing any collection start past the market's deadline if the waiver holds.
Polymarket's resolution criteria require both an official Iranian government announcement and credible media confirmation that fee collection has commenced for the contract to settle affirmatively. The 60-day negotiation window announced in mid-June would extend past July 31 even without further delays, creating a narrow path for the market to resolve yes. Trading volume reached $135,462 over the past day as participants repriced the likelihood of an imminent implementation.
Diplomatic reporting indicates continued friction over the structure of any payment regime. The New York Times reported June 30 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated U.S. opposition to any arrangement involving "a fee, a toll, or a donation" for passage through the strait, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Oman proposed a voluntary contribution framework the same day, while Iranian officials insisted payments would be mandatory, according to Reuters coverage of the negotiations.
An Iran-linked report published July 3 suggested the final understanding between Washington and Tehran recognized Iranian and Omani roles in managing maritime services and allowed for fees after an initial free period. The conflicting accounts leave open whether any charge would be framed as a service payment rather than a sovereign toll, a distinction that could affect both U.S. legal objections and market resolution. With 17 days remaining until the deadline, traders now view a July start as highly improbable absent a sudden policy reversal in Tehran.