Technology / 2 MIN READ
Prediction markets give the chipmaker a 29.5% chance of reclaiming the world's most valuable company title by July 31.
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Current live odds
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
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© 2026 Prediction Market Network. Market data references Polymarket and Kalshi and may change rapidly.
Prediction markets now price a 29.5% probability that NVIDIA will be the world's largest company by market capitalization on July 31, a sharp 49-point drop in the last 24 hours as Apple briefly reclaimed the top spot on July 17. The implied odds reflect deep uncertainty about which mega-cap stock will close the month ahead, with market-cap trackers showing NVIDIA's valuation swinging between $4.77 trillion and $5.11 trillion in recent weeks depending on data source and update timing.
NVIDIA's market cap stood at roughly $4.84 trillion in early trading on July 17, according to CNBC, while Apple hovered near $4.88 trillion, underscoring how quickly the lead can shift. CompaniesMarketCap listed NVIDIA at $4.94 trillion in July 2026 and ranked it first, but Public.com reported $4.77 trillion on July 7 and TradingEconomics showed $4.78 trillion for the same period. The discrepancies arise because different platforms update at different intervals and may use varying share counts, making the No. 1 ranking highly sensitive to the precise moment of measurement.
The key disconfirming event for NVIDIA's dominance came on July 17, when Apple surpassed the chipmaker at least briefly, according to CNBC. That reversal broke a stretch in which NVIDIA had held the top spot for much of early July, and it suggests that the July 31 outcome will depend on late-month price moves rather than a stable lead. NVIDIA's investor site provides historical stock-price lookup but no direct market-cap ranking, so traders must rely on contemporaneous share price and shares outstanding to determine the winner.
With three days left before the market closes, the 29.5% probability leaves ample room for a late rally or a further decline. The market's 24-hour volume of $123,683 indicates active positioning by traders who see the race as too close to call. If NVIDIA can regain upward momentum in the final trading sessions, it could still edge past Apple, but the odds suggest the market views Apple's resurgence as the more likely scenario for July 31.