Markets / 2 MIN READ
Traders now price just 0.05 percent odds that OpenAI's next GPT model will debut scoring 1460 or higher by year-end.
Market data
Final displayed market price
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?
Markets / 1 MIN READ
NewThe Italian repeated as champion, prevailing in four sets at the All England Club.
Markets / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekTraders now assign just 1 percent odds that OpenAI's next GPT release will hit a 1470 benchmark score by year-end.
Markets / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekToday's market video report — 3 stories moving prediction markets on July 11, 2026.
Prediction markets assigned a 0.05 percent probability on July 11 that OpenAI's next major GPT model will launch with a benchmark score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, down 92.1 percentage points in 24 hours on $33,984 in trading volume. The Polymarket contract hinges on a score threshold that has no public counterpart in OpenAI's official documentation, raising questions about whether traders are speculating on an internal metric or a misunderstood benchmark.
OpenAI's current frontier family is GPT-5.x, with GPT-5.4 released as a mainline reasoning model and GPT-5.4 Thinking rolling out to ChatGPT Plus, Team, and Pro subscribers. The company reported state-of-the-art results for GPT-5 on established benchmarks including 94.6 percent on AIME 2025 without tools, 74.9 percent on SWE-bench Verified, 84.2 percent on MMMU, and 46.2 percent on HealthBench Hard, but none of these frameworks reference a 1460 score. Independent timelines show GPT-5.5 was released April 23, 2026, and became the default ChatGPT model May 5, making it the most recent numbered release.
OpenAI has confirmed that GPT-6, the next major numbered model, will not launch in 2025 and is in development for a 2026 release, most likely in the first half of the year. A February 2026 analysis of public statements by CEO Sam Altman offered a median scenario with a developer preview in the fourth quarter of 2026 and broad ChatGPT rollout in the first quarter of 2027, implying non-trivial risk that GPT-6 will not reach general availability by the contract's December 31 deadline. Model retirement schedules show GPT-5.2 Thinking is set to be retired June 5, 2026, and o3 will be removed from ChatGPT after August 26, 2026, illustrating OpenAI's pattern of iterative rollouts and sunsetting.
Analysts note that the absence of any public reference to a 1460 score in OpenAI's benchmark reporting or roadmap documentation suggests the contract relies on a custom or internal metric, introducing significant definition risk alongside the timing uncertainty already embedded in the 0.05 percent price. Hardware capacity estimates suggest GPT-6 could scale to 20 to 50 trillion parameters, but these remain projections rather than official specifications.