Markets / 1 MIN READ
Prediction market reflects divided sentiment as index hovers near strike with Goldman's 8000 target competing against correction warnings.
Market data
Current live odds
Will the S&P 500 be above 7584.9999 on Jul 13, 2026 at 10am EDT?
Markets / 1 MIN READ
NewTraders now see less than three-in-ten odds the index holds above 7,590 at Sunday's open after recent selloff.
Markets / 1 MIN READ
NewToday's market video report — 3 stories moving prediction markets on July 12, 2026.
Markets / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekTraders now assign just 1 percent odds that OpenAI's next GPT release will hit a 1470 benchmark score by year-end.
Traders on Kalshi are pricing a 32 percent probability that the S&P 500 will close above 7584.9999 at 10am EDT on July 13, down 31 percentage points in the past 24 hours as the index trades at 7577.9 on July 12. The narrow 7-point gap between spot and strike has turned the contract into a coin flip, with $203 in volume reflecting cautious positioning ahead of the Sunday morning snapshot.
Goldman Sachs Research raised its year-end 2026 target to 8000 from 7600 on May 26, projecting S&P 500 earnings per share of $340 for the year—a 24 percent increase driven by profit growth rather than multiple expansion. J.P. Morgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas told Reuters the index should end 2026 at 7500, with potential to exceed 8000 if the Federal Reserve continues cutting rates. Pound Sterling Live's point forecast for Monday, July 13 sits at 7607, implying a modest 30-point rally from current levels would clear the Kalshi strike.
Bearish voices complicate the picture. A Fortune report from early July cited analysts reaffirming a 7100 year-end target, warning the index could surrender much of its 2026 gains despite the artificial intelligence rally. Capital.com noted in March that downside risks from Middle East tension, higher oil prices, and delayed Fed rate cuts remain live threats, recalling the index's 2.5 percent year-to-date decline through mid-March when it traded at 6683.7. LongForecast data shows the S&P 500 closed at 7574.71 on the previous trading day, underscoring how little room for error exists at the current level.
The 32 percent implied probability suggests the market sees meaningful two-way risk around 7585. With consensus year-end targets spanning 7100 to 8000 and technical support in the 7000–7200 range, short-term path dependency—earnings surprises, geopolitical headlines, or Federal Reserve commentary—could easily tip the index either side of the strike in the 22 hours remaining before the Sunday morning settlement.