World / 1 MIN READ
Commercial transit is at a fraction of normal levels due to sea mines, insurance risks, and a stalled US-Iran peace process.
Market data
Current live odds
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal commercial traffic for 94 days as of early June 2026, with transit levels at roughly 5% of pre-conflict averages. The disruption stems from Iranian sea mines, the absence of a definitive US-Iran peace agreement, and elevated insurance costs for shippers.
An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies details the severe impact on global energy markets and supply chains. The International Monetary Fund's PortWatch platform, which tracks vessel calls, continues to show near-zero transit through the strait.
No official timeline for reopening the waterway has been provided by either the United States or Iran. Experts cited by CNN indicate that a return to full capacity before late 2026 remains unlikely given the diplomatic impasse and continued naval escorts.
The key catalyst for normalization would be a peace agreement that includes explicit provisions for safe passage and removal of mines and restrictions. The market outcome will be determined by transit data from the IMF PortWatch platform.
World / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekThe market resolution relies on the official classification, with Switzerland emerging as the leading location.
World / 1 MIN READ
The president announced conditions for ending the naval operation, but formal lifting has not yet occurred amid ongoing negotiations with Iran.
World / 1 MIN READ
Negotiators reached a 60-day truce extension on May 28, but the final announcement remains uncertain without the President's sign-off.