Texans are voting Tuesday in a U.S. Senate race that could help decide which party controls the chamber, choosing between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn. Election Day follows an early-voting period that ended Friday, Oct. 30. Texas has not elected a Democrat in a statewide race in three decades, according to CNN, which is a large part of why the contest has drawn national attention. A Talarico win would break that streak; a Paxton win would keep the seat in Republican hands.
The final public polls did not agree on who leads. A CNN poll of 923 likely Texas voters, conducted Oct. 20-27, found Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 43%. A Fox News poll of 1,398 likely voters, conducted Oct. 15-19, found the two tied at 49% each, after Talarico led 51% to 49% in the network's survey the month before. Polling from the Barbara Jordan Center put Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 47%, a gap within the poll's margin of error, CBS Austin reported. CNN's survey also found Talarico winning 63% of Latino likely voters, and found Paxton struggling with his own side: 24% of Republicans in the poll held an unfavorable view of him.
Both candidates spent the last week of early voting delivering closing arguments. Talarico told supporters in Dallas, “we are in that moment,” while Paxton asked voters whether they wanted “a US senator that thinks capitalism and free markets are oppressive and wants to dismantle it,” according to CBS Austin. Early turnout was heavy in the state's population centers: through the Thursday before early voting closed, Travis County had recorded 398,190 early ballots and neighboring Williamson County 208,620. CNN found that at least 6 in 10 uncommitted likely voters in Texas were Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, which leaves room for late deciders to break toward Paxton.
Prediction markets offer a separate snapshot of belief. On Kalshi, the contract for Paxton defeating Talarico traded at 29% as of 10:33 a.m. ET on Nov. 3, while the paired contract for a Talarico win was priced near 70%. The Paxton contract stood near 40% in mid-October. Those prices describe what traders were willing to pay, not an objective probability, and they do not settle a race that two of the three polls above put within a few points.
The answer arrives when polls close Tuesday evening. The returns will show whether the heavy early vote in counties like Travis and Williamson outweighs the Republican lean CNN found among late deciders, and whether Texas sends a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in more than three decades or keeps the seat in Republican hands for another term.
