Michael Jackson's "Thriller" has never been a No. 1 single. It peaked at No. 4 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 1984, and every fall since 2018 it has returned to the chart as Halloween listening spikes. This year Billboard is openly asking whether the song could finally go all the way. U.S. streams are running well ahead of last year, and a quirk of the calendar packs more of the holiday's listening into a single chart week. If it happened, Billboard says, it would be the century's first seasonal Halloween No. 1.
The numbers behind that question are strong but incomplete. "Thriller" drew 5.9 million official on-demand U.S. streams in the week ending Oct. 15, up 42% from 4.1 million in the same week of 2025, according to Luminate data cited by Billboard. Jackson's catalog has been climbing since the April release of the biopic "Michael," which has put six of his songs on the Hot 100 this year, though "Thriller" was not yet among them as of Billboard's Oct. 23 analysis. Last November the song reached No. 10, its first top-10 showing since 1984, on the strength of about 14 million streams in Halloween week.
Timing may matter as much as demand. Billboard's tracking week runs Friday to Thursday. In 2025 Halloween fell on a Friday, so much of the pre-holiday listening counted toward the previous week. This year Halloween is a Saturday, which puts Friday and Saturday into the same tracking window, Oct. 30 through Nov. 5. Men's Journal estimated that 42% growth on last year's Halloween-week total would mean roughly 20 million streams. The competition is stiff. Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas," the reigning No. 1, posted 19.6 million streams in a recent week, and Tame Impala's "Dracula" was No. 5 on the Oct. 24 chart as the country's top radio song. "Thriller" draws about a tenth of the airplay "Dracula" does and sold roughly 3,000 copies a week around Halloween last year.
Prediction markets are taking the comeback seriously but not the coronation. On Kalshi, traders put about a 90% chance on "Thriller" ranking between No. 16 and No. 20 on the Hot 100 dated Nov. 7, a chart that reflects listening in the week before Halloween. On Polymarket, the contract on "Thriller" finishing No. 1 on the chart dated Nov. 14, the one that captures Halloween week itself, trades at about 2%.
The first answer comes early next week, when Billboard publishes the Nov. 7 chart and shows where "Thriller" lands. The bigger test follows a week later. "Monster Mash" in 1962 and Ray Parker Jr.'s "Ghostbusters" in 1984 both topped the Hot 100 during their original runs, but Billboard notes that none of the seasonal staples has seriously threatened the top spot on a yearly return. "Thriller" would need to beat a reigning No. 1 and a radio-dominant "Dracula" in the one week its fans show up all at once.
