The dispute over Jerome Powell’s future at the Federal Reserve now turns on a question with consequences beyond the renovation at the center of the controversy: will President Donald Trump move from demanding Powell’s resignation to trying to fire him? Traders on Kalshi put the chance of an attempt to fire Powell as chair or governor before the end of the year at 10% as of 12:55 p.m. ET on Oct. 1. That is a measure of what traders currently believe, not a forecast of what Trump will do. The contract concerns an attempt to fire Powell; it does not ask whether he will resign or whether a firing would succeed.
Trump said Powell should be forced to resign from the Fed’s Board of Governors, and said he had directed the attorney general to study the inspector general’s report and decide what to do about the renovation. Those statements raise the possibility of further action, but they do not establish that Trump has decided to attempt a removal. The report has supplied fresh material for the dispute, while leaving the president’s next step unresolved.
The watchdog’s findings also cut against a simple case for removal based on the renovation. Powell attributed some extra costs to asbestos work and higher-than-estimated materials and labor costs. The inspector general said design features criticized by the White House did not materially contribute to the cost overruns. The report’s findings on project management do not, by themselves, answer whether the administration will pursue a formal step against Powell. Nor does the market answer that question: it records a current trading view, not evidence of a decision inside the White House.
Powell has said he will remain on the board until the investigation is over with transparency and finality. He can remain through January 2028. That leaves time for the standoff to continue, but it does not show whether Trump will seek to remove him before then. The distinction matters: a demand that Powell leave is not the same as an attempt to fire him, and an attempt would not itself establish that he had been removed. The available reporting does not establish how the Federal Reserve, Congress or the courts would respond to such a move.
Kalshi’s contract is open and concerns an attempt before the start of 2026; its price has not changed over the past day or the week. Trading volume was 1,348 contracts traded over the last day, with 25,161 contracts open. That activity gives a snapshot of traders’ views, not a measure of how likely an attempt is in any objective sense. For readers, the consequential uncertainty remains whether pressure over the renovation will become an effort to remove Powell—or remain a demand that he resign. The report clarifies some of the criticism; it does not settle what Trump or the attorney general will do next.
