Economy / 2 MIN READ
Oil has swung between $69 and $77 in July, making the 44.5% chance of a $75 print a finely balanced bet.
Market data
Current live odds
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
Economy / 2 MIN READ
Prediction markets now assign 73 percent odds that WTI crude will touch $90 before month-end despite trading near $79.
Economy / 2 MIN READ
Prediction markets reflect tight supplies and Middle East tensions as front-month crude hovers near the threshold with two weeks left.
Economy / 1 MIN READ
Still livePolymarket assigns just 8 percent odds to a July rate increase, while CME futures price the same scenario near 27 percent.
© 2026 Prediction Market Network. Market data references Polymarket and Kalshi and may change rapidly.
Prediction markets now price a 44.5% probability that front-month WTI crude oil will touch a low of $75 in July, according to Polymarket data. The contract, which settles on Aug. 1, has seen the benchmark swing from a low near $69.60 to highs above $76.80 within the same month, reflecting the volatility that has followed the recent US-Iran diplomatic thaw. The 44.5% implied probability has climbed 30 percentage points in the past 24 hours, suggesting traders are increasingly betting on an upside move before the deadline.
Front-month WTI futures were quoted at $72.27 on Investing.com as of late July, with a previous close of $72.08. TradingEconomics reported crude at $74.49 on July 8 after a 5.75% daily surge, while a Fortune article from July 10 put the benchmark at $76.80. Yet the market has also spent time below $70: a Sigmanomics release recorded $69.60 per barrel earlier in the month, underscoring the wide intra-month range. The $75 threshold is a contract-specific trigger that requires a low print at or below that level before the Aug. 1 market close.
For the 44.5% chance to realize, WTI would need to rally from recent levels near $72 back toward the mid-$70s and sustain enough upside to record a session low at or below $75. The recent US-Iran peace deal removed a large geopolitical risk premium, but the subsequent rally to $76.80 suggests demand expectations have strengthened. However, rising global inventories and softening demand, noted in Polymarket’s market description, could cap gains. The market has already assigned a 100% probability to the July low reaching $70, but the $75 level remains a tighter call.
The Polymarket contract closes at 03:59 UTC on Aug. 1, leaving roughly three trading sessions for the July front-month contract to print a $75 low. Traders will watch upcoming weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration for near-term catalysts. A large drawdown could push prices through the $75 barrier, while a build would bolster the bearish case. With just days remaining, the 44.5% probability reflects a market that sees the outcome as within reach but far from assured.