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If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?
-0.4pp over 24h
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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?
-1.5pp over 24h
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Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?
+5.0pp over 24h
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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?
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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?
+28.5pp over 24h
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Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?
-0.6pp over 24h
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Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
+0.5pp over 24h
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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?
-0.2pp over 24h
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