James Madison at Appalachian State

Thursday, October 22 · 7:00 PM ET · Thursday night game

COLLEGE FOOTBALL · THURSDAY NIGHT GAMESUN BELT GAME

AWAYJames MadisonDukes80%chance to win · Polymarket 80.5% · Kalshi 79.5%

atKICKS OFFIN 2 HR 50 MINThu 7:00 PM ET

HOMEAppalachian StateMountaineers20%chance to win · Polymarket 19.5% · Kalshi 20.5%

Favorite: James Madison, 80%Spread: James Madison −10.5Total: 55.5The sites are 1.0 pts apart

The two sites nearly agree

Polymarket and Kalshi are within 1 point of each other on every line they both price live. The biggest difference is on the chance to win.

MARKET	POLYMARKET	KALSHI	DIFFERENCE
To winChance James Madison wins	80.5%	79.5%	1.0 pts
Spread: James Madison −10.5Chance James Madison wins by 11 or more	54.5%	—	—
Total: 55.5 pointsChance of 56 or more points combined	52.5%	—	—

James Madison rose from 74% to 80.5% on Polymarket since Oct 13, peaking at 82.5%. Polymarket has 80.5% and Kalshi 79.5% now.

James Madison Dukes: chance to winPolymarketKalshiEach site's price as the sports room checked it

70%75%80%85%Oct 14Oct 16Oct 18Oct 20Oct 22Polymarket 80.5%Kalshi 79.5%

Both teams play in the Sun Belt, so this game counts toward the conference title.

TEAM	Make the playoff	Win the Sun Belt	Win the national title
James MadisonDukes	31%P 33* · K 31	40%P 40* · K —	1%P — · K 1*
Appalachian StateMountaineers	—Not listed	—P — · K —	—Not listed

* Last trade only: that site has no live price right now, so it is left out of the average. A number in gray comes from last trades alone.