Virginia at Florida State

Saturday, October 3 · 3:30 PM ET · Saturday afternoon game

COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SATURDAY AFTERNOON GAMEACC GAME

AWAYVirginiaCavaliers55%chance to win · Polymarket 54.5% · Kalshi 55.5%

atKICKS OFFIN 1 DAYSat 3:30 PM ET

HOMEFlorida StateSeminoles45%chance to win · Polymarket 45.5% · Kalshi 44.5%

Favorite: Virginia, 55%Spread: Virginia −2.5Total: 51.5The sites are 1.0 pts apart

The two sites nearly agree

Polymarket and Kalshi are within 1 point of each other on every line here. The biggest difference is on the chance to win.

MARKET	POLYMARKET	KALSHI	DIFFERENCE
To winChance Virginia wins	54.5%	55.5%	1.0 pts
Spread: Virginia −2.5Chance Virginia wins by 3 or more	50%	49.5%	0.5 pts
Total: 51.5 pointsChance of 52 or more points combined	50.5%	51.5%	1.0 pts

Virginia has stayed between 54.5% and 55.5% since Oct 1. Polymarket has 54.5% and Kalshi 55.5% now.

Virginia Cavaliers: chance to winPolymarketKalshiEach site's price as the sports room checked it

50%55%60%Oct 2Polymarket 54.5%Kalshi 55.5%

Both teams play in the ACC, so this game counts toward the conference title.

TEAM	Make the playoff	Win the ACC	Win the national title
VirginiaCavaliers	6%P — · K 6	4%P 4.4 · K 3.5	1%P — · K 1*
Florida StateSeminoles	3.3%P 4 · K 2.5	1.1%P 1.1 · K 1*	1%P — · K 1*

* Last trade only: that site has no live price right now, so it is left out of the average. A number in gray comes from last trades alone.