PMN Topic Guide
Coverage of elections, policy fights, leadership contests, and political events through market-implied probabilities.
Political markets can react quickly to new information, but PMN still checks the market move against public reporting and context.
No. They are a different signal. PMN compares market movement with polls, timing, incentives, and event risk.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
NewClosing arguments are approaching in Massachusetts, where jurors must decide whether the killings were planned murders or the product of postpartum psychosis.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekWith Trump announcing Leavitt's exit by month's end, the market now prices a 62.5% chance she says 'President' 50 times in her next briefing.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekMike Mazzei carries the former president's backing into a bruising final stretch, while Gentner Drummond tries to turn transparency fights and policy splits into an opening.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekDarline Graham enters the final stretch under fresh scrutiny from a shaky debate, while Ralph Norman argues that experience matters more than a presidential rescue.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekThe Kentucky Republican said he would remain in office through the end of his term, leaving the question of an early departure unresolved.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
The August 11 agreement marks the first diplomatic step in 17 years, but stops short of the formal recognition that remains an open question.