PMN Topic Guide
Coverage of elections, policy fights, leadership contests, and political events through market-implied probabilities.
Political markets can react quickly to new information, but PMN still checks the market move against public reporting and context.
No. They are a different signal. PMN compares market movement with polls, timing, incentives, and event risk.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
Earlier this weekTraders now assign 38 percent probability the president will mention hoaxes at the July 24 correspondents' dinner, up 15 points.
Traders lean no; down 17pp from 62% NO at publication.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekMaine Democrats face Tuesday cutoff for clean ballot replacement as sexual assault allegation drives nominee toward likely dropout.
Traders lean yes; up 2pp from 98% YES at publication.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
Still liveThe Trump administration declined the offer and reaffirmed the One Somalia policy, maintaining the status quo despite diplomatic lobbying.
Traders lean no; down 14pp from 78% NO at publication.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
The anti-corruption movement, sparked by the Novi Sad railway collapse, shows no sign of easing, leaving the president's future uncertain.
Traders lean yes.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
The June 2 executive order creates a 30-day voluntary review window for advanced AI models but rules out mandatory licensing.
Traders lean no.
Politics / 1 MIN READ
High-level talks aim to resolve national security concerns that led to a global suspension of the AI model earlier this month.
Market is split.