PMN Topic Guide
Coverage of elections, policy fights, leadership contests, and political events through market-implied probabilities.
Political markets can react quickly to new information, but PMN still checks the market move against public reporting and context.
No. They are a different signal. PMN compares market movement with polls, timing, incentives, and event risk.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekA Kalshi market prices announcement timing, while reporting points to his public rejection of a presidential bid and a Senate race driving attention.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekA report described the idea as aspirational; current IRS guidance outlines targeted tax changes, not a blanket income-tax exemption.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekRepublicans begin with a majority, but ratings and polling point to competitive contests; Kalshi traders’ prices span several possible outcomes.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekKalshi traders slightly favor Aaron Ford, while polls and forecasters offer competing reads; crime and housing affordability stand out as contrasting voter concerns.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
Earlier this weekBut the contract ranks states only if Democrats win Senate races there; a poll finding a Texas tie is not a forecast of victory.
Politics / 2 MIN READ
A Kalshi market prices additional workforce reductions, but the latest headcount is not a tally of direct firings.