Alaskans are voting Tuesday in a U.S. Senate race that could help decide which party controls the chamber, as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan seeks a third term against former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. The closing stretch has centered on a second candidate with the incumbent's name. Daniel J. Sullivan, a former teacher, appears on the ballot as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” with no party affiliation listed, while the senator appears as “Dan S. Sullivan” with the labels “Republican” and “Incumbent,” according to the Associated Press. Gerald Heikes is the fourth name on the ballot. If no candidate wins a majority, ranked choice voting decides the race.
The two parties have told that story very differently. According to the AP, a New York Times investigation published Oct. 28 reported that Peltola's campaign appeared to be involved in recruiting Daniel J. Sullivan, allegedly to siphon votes from the senator. President Donald Trump called it “ELECTION FRAUD” on Truth Social and wrote that Peltola “shouldn’t be allowed to run,” according to Fox News. In remarks Fox News posted on Nov. 2, he said Peltola “should be removed from the ballot and prosecuted.” Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered a state investigation. Peltola's campaign said it “has no involvement with either Sullivan campaign and did not recruit any candidates into the race,” and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it had no role in recruiting either Sullivan.
The latest turn came in court. On Sunday, U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason threw out a Justice Department lawsuit that sought to segregate ballots and delay certification of the race if the senator lost, CNN reported. Gleason found the federal government lacked standing, said the move would violate voters' right to a secret ballot, and said it was too late to force such a change on the eve of an election. The department filed a notice of appeal, and a spokesperson said, “Alaskan voters deserve a fair election, not to be misled in an attempt to rig outcomes.” Legal experts told Fox News the appeal, which would go to the Ninth Circuit, is a “heavy lift” before polls close, while a separate federal criminal investigation into the second Sullivan's candidacy continues.
Prediction markets offer a separate snapshot of belief. On Kalshi, the contract on a Republican winning Alaska's Senate race, the seat Sullivan holds, traded at 29.5% as of 11:50 a.m. ET on Nov. 3, while the paired contract on a Democratic win was priced at 70.5%. The Republican contract sat between 24.5% and 26.5% for most of October, rose to 31.5% by the end of Oct. 28, the day the Times report was published, and held there through Oct. 30 before easing. Those prices describe what traders were willing to pay, not a forecast. In the Aug. 18 all-party primary, Peltola received 49.5% of the vote and Sullivan 41.4%, according to the AP.
The first returns come after polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is midnight ET, with one polling place in the Aleutian Islands closing at 1 a.m. ET, according to the AP. Alaska typically releases nearly all in-person results by the last update of election night, with the bulk of mail ballot results released in the days that follow. Separately, the Justice Department's appeal and its criminal investigation remain open.
