Mainers are voting Tuesday in a U.S. Senate race that could help decide which party controls the chamber, choosing between Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term, and Democrat Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president and longtime labor advocate. Jackson became her challenger after Graham Platner, the oysterman who won the Democratic primary, dropped out amid sexual assault allegations, which Platner has denied. Collins is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024, according to Fox News, and Democrats view the seat as a must-win in their effort to take control of the Senate.
The final public polls did not agree on the size of Jackson's edge, or whether he has one. A Fox News poll conducted Oct. 16-20 found the two tied at 49% apiece among likely voters. A CNN poll of 783 likely Maine voters, conducted Oct. 20-26, found Jackson at 49% and Collins at 45%, which CNN described as no clear leader. The final New York Times/Siena poll put Jackson ahead 51% to 45%, MS NOW reported, and a CNN Poll of Polls average one day out showed Jackson leading 50% to 46%. CNN also found that more than 9 in 10 Maine likely voters say they are locked into their choice.
The Fox poll found the race splitting by how and when people vote. Jackson carried the one in five Mainers who had already cast a ballot by 40 points, while the slim majority planning to vote on Election Day favored Collins by 12 points. In the same survey, 53% of likely voters were concerned that Collins votes with President Donald Trump too much, while 46% were concerned that Jackson is too liberal. Collins won by nearly 9 points in 2020. Jackson closed with a seven-figure ad blitz that, MS NOW reported, cast the contest as a choice between wealthy interests aligned with Trump and everyday Americans. “Is it for the billionaires and Trump, or everyday people like us?” Jackson said in the ad.
Prediction markets offer a separate snapshot of belief. On Kalshi, the contract for a Republican win in Maine's Senate race, the Collins side of the market, traded at 32.5% as of 12:37 p.m. ET on Nov. 3, while the paired contract for a Democratic win was priced near 67.5%. The Republican contract stood above 40% in mid-October. Those prices describe what traders were willing to pay, not an objective probability or a forecast, and they do not settle a race that the Fox News poll scored as a tie.
The answer begins to arrive when polls in Maine close at 8 p.m. Eastern, according to CNN, which called the Senate contest the most closely watched race in the state and the entire Northeast. The returns will show whether Jackson's lead among early voters outweighs Collins' advantage with Election Day voters, and whether Collins wins a sixth term or Democrats flip one of the seats they need for a majority.
